Sunday, March 2, 2014

Oscar Predictions

I love the Oscars. Even though the Golden Globes are a bigger party, and the Grammys have better musical performances, the Oscars have always been my favourite awards show. Tonight's Academy Awards will be celebrating what was a really great year for movies, so let's go through the list and make a couple of predictions.

Best Adapted Screenplay


Nominees

John Ridley — 12 Years a Slave
Steve Koogan and Jeff Pope — Philomena
Billy Ray — Captain Phillips
Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater — Before Midnight
Terence Winter — The Wolf of Wall Street

Who I Think Will Win: John Ridley — 12 Years a Slave

The script has been the frontrunner for this award since the movie premiered early in award season. Nothing has really emerged to challenge it as the favourite.

Who I Want to Win: Billy Ray — Captain Phillips

I really enjoyed Captain Phillips. It ran over two hours, but didn't feel too long, and told a great story about a really interesting subject. I feel like Tom Hanks fully deserved a nomination for Best Actor, and I can't see Phillips winning any other category. So even though this movie might not have the best script, I'd like to see it walk away with something

Best Original Screenplay


Nominees

Woody Allen — Blue Jasmine
Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russel — American Hustle
Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack — Dallas Buyers Club
Spike Jonze — Her
Bob Nelson — Nebraska

Who I Think Will Win: Spike Jonze — Her

Spike Jonze's script managed to take home both the Golden Globe and the Writers Guild of America trophies. Add that to the fact that I think Academy voters will want to reward this wonderful little movie, and Her should be a favourite in this category.

That being said, 20% of the Academy is made up of members of the acting community, which could lead to strong support for the actor heavy American Hustle. That script is an actor's dream.

Who I Want to Win: Spike Jonze — Her

Her was easily one of my favourite movies of the year, and the script was a big reason why. Jonze managed to craft a world that seemed familiar yet foreign, and told a traditional love story while also commenting on our relationship with technology. It was the most human movie of the year, and it dealt with a man in love with an operating system.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees

Jared Leto — Dallas Buyers Club
Jonah Hill — Wolf of Wall Street
Bradley Cooper — American Hustle
Michael Fassbender — 12 Years a Slave
Barkhad Abdi — Captain Phillips

Who I Think Will Win: Jared Leto — Dallas Buyers Club

Leto did a phenomenal job transforming himself into Rayon for Dallas Buyers Club, but I think the most powerful scene he had in the movie was when he dressed up in a suit to go talk to his father. It was a great performance that required a massive change in a movie about a serious topic. All of those things lead to Oscar gold.

Who I Want to Win: Jonah Hill — Wolf of Wall Stree

Jonah Hill was great in this movie. He had so much fun, but managed to play a convincing character across from Leo. He ate a live goldfish. And he did it all for $60,000, the minimum amount a member of the Screen Actors Guild is allowed to be paid, simply because he wanted to be in a Martin Scorsese movie. 

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees

Sally Hawkins — Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence — American Hustle
June Squibb — Nebraska
Lupita Nyong'o — 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts — August Osage County

Who I Think Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o — 12 Years a Slave

The narrative is too good for the Academy to pass up. Mexican born, Kenyan raised, Yale educated Lupita Nyong'o plays a beaten slave in a Picture of the Year favourite. It doesn't hurt that she's phenomenal in it.

Her biggest competition is Jennifer Lawrence, who won in this category last year. The Academy won't want her to win back-to-back Oscars before she's 25. Sorry JLaw.

Who I Want to See Win: June Squibb — Nebraska

This Vine is why she deserves to win.


Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Matthew McConaughey —Dallas Buyers Club
Leonardo DiCaprio — Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor — 12 Years a Slave
Bruce Dern — Nebraska
Christian Bale — American Hustle

Who I Think Will Win: Matthew McConaughey — Dallas Buyers Club

See the reasons I listed for Jared Leto as to why McConaughey will win. Combine that with the fact that Hollywood is going crazy over the McConnaisance and he's pretty much a lock.

I really liked his performance. I though Dallas Buyers Club was a flawed movie that oversimplified a very complicated issue. The movie gave everyone a white hat or a black hat, but McConaughey managed to wear a variety of hats (literally and figuratively).

Who I Want to See Win

Leonardo DiCapri — Wolf of Wall Street

This is my favourite Leo performance ever. He gives a controlled insanity at all times, and brings the audience along for a wild ride. This movie is incredibly divisive, which means it probably won't win anything, and that's too bad.

Actress in a Leading Role


Nominees:

Amy Adams — American Hustle
Cate Blanchett — Blue Jasmine 
Judi Dench — Philomena
Sandra Bullock — Gravity
Meryl Streep — August Osage County

Who I Think Will Win:  Cate Blanchett — Blue Jasmine

I haven't seen this movie yet, I was trying to before today, but it'll have to wait. But apparently she's the lock of the century, so, yep.

Who I Want to See Win: Amy Adams — American Hustle

I loved American Hustle. It was probably the most fun I had at the movies all year. Amy Adams, and her sideboob, was a big part of that.

Her energy throughout the movie is off the charts, and the fact that she's basically playing two characters helps.

Best Director


Nominees:

Alfonso Cuarón — Gravity
David O. Russel — American Hustle
Alexander Payne — Nebraska
Martin Scorsese — Wolf of Wall Street
Steve McQueen — 12 Years a Slave

Who I Think Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón — Gravity

This movie, much like James Cameron's Avatar, has changed the rules for what is possible in the world of filmmaking. I saw this in IMAX 3D, and held my breath the entire time. It was visually astounding.

Who I Wants to See Win: Alfonso Cuarón — Gravity

Gravity was remarkable bit of filmmaking, and it deserves to be recognized here.

Best Picture

Nominees:

Dallas Buyers Club
Nebraska
Her
American Hustle
Wolf of Wall Street
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
Captain Phillips

Who I Think Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

12 Years a Slave is a hard movie to watch. It's a brutal look at slavery, and an important film. The Academy will reward it with a Best Picture statuette tonight.

Who I Want to See Win: Her

My favourite movie of the year, but it doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell at winning tonight. I'm glad to see it was recognized with a nomination, and I'll be rooting for Spike Jonze's incredible little film tonight.















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