Super Bowl Lines

Super Bowl Sunday is probably my favourite day of the year. I've always meant to end up in Vegas with a hundred grand to blow on stupid wagers over Super Bowl weekend, but somehow that hasn't happened yet. But I might as well indulge in the fantasy today before kickoff... Let's look at some of the lines (courtesy of bodog.com) and see where I fall on them.

I'm going to spend $100,000 theoretical dollars over this series of prop bets, and see how much richer/poorer (okay let's be honest — poorer) I'd be if these bets were actually placed next week.

A quick crash course on sports gambling lines for those of you that aren't familiar. If a line is listed as EVEN than you win as much money as you've bet. If it's listed at +xxx than you'd win that much money on a $100 bet (eg: If a line is +120 than you'd win $120, as well as your additional $100). The opposite is true for -xxx lines (if a line is -120, you'd have to bet $120 to win 100$).

Coin Toss

Let's warm up with an easy one here. The coin toss is completely random and unpredictable, but the last five years it's turned up heads. 

That trend ends today.

Wager: Tails (never fails) $5000 at -105

Team to score first in game

Okay, let's talk a little football. I've watched a lot of Super Bowls, and in just about every one I can remember, teams tend to start slow and hesitant, almost as if the weight of the moment is overwhelming them. The Seahawks are starting a second-year quarterback in Russel Wilson. The Broncos have Peyton Freaking Manning. Who do you think is more likely to come out ready to roll?

Wager: Denver Broncos $5000 at -130

The first score of the game will be

Options here are TOUCHDOWN (-140) or FIELD GOAL/SAFETY (+110). Following my logic from the last bet, if I'm assuming the Broncos are scoring first, I'm pounding the Field Goal line here, especially with the discrepancy in the lines.

I see the Broncos offence driving down the field all day, with short crossing routes to Wes Welker and Eric Decker picking up first downs from Peyton Manning. They're not going to take deep shots against the Cover 3 defence of Seattle with the two best defensive backs (Earl Thomas and Dick Sherman) patrolling the back end. So they're going to get inside Seattle territory often. Everything changes in the redzone, though, and Manning and the Broncos are going to be hard-pressed to find the end zone, so they'll be forced to kick field goals.

Wager: FIELD GOAL/SAFETY $10,000 at +110 

Longest Touchdown in Game (Over/Under 44.5 yards)

See that las paragraph where I talked about how the Broncos offence will operate? They're not scoring a TD over 44.5 yards. The only concern I have about this bet is Marshawn Lynch going full-on beast mode and busting one for 60 and a touch. Hopefully if he goes Skittles on us, it's from inside the 45.

Wager: UNDER 44.5 YARDS $5000 at -125

Total Number of QB Sacks in the game (O/U 4)

Manning gets the ball out quick. Wilson extends the play better than anyone I've ever seen who doesn't play in Pittsburgh and been accused of rape.

Wager: UNDER 4 at $10,000 at +110

Will either team score 3 unanswered times in this game?

I really can't see this happening. Teams are both even, scoring should be low, and neither is going to let someone run away with it. 

Wager: No at $5000 at +135

Total Points (47.5)

I actually want no part of this line, since I'm feeling a 24-23 type of game. But if you have 100,000 fake dollars to gamble, you have to do a Total Points bet. So I'm gonna go with offence, and pick the over, only because it's more fun to root for.

Wager: Over 47.5 at $10,000

Seahawks (+3) vs Broncos

Three is the magic number in football gambling. Take the points, take the better team, take the Seahawks.

Wager: Seattle +3 at $50,000